Imagining the Post-COVID-19 Economy for Hampton Roads and Virginia

The current COVID-19 pandemic will leave a lasting impact on the nation and throughout state and local communities.  Those who are forward looking can begin to anticipate the structural changes required to not only survive but to reemerge ready to execute business within the new paradigm.

This Black Swan event will compel a reevaluation of how many industries operate, forcing new thinking, and undoubtedly ushering in new ways of doing business for many.  It could eliminate some industries altogether, and accelerate the rapid transition of others to more distributed, less manpower intensive operations.

At a national level, we must reevaluate critical supply chains, first by having a sober assessment of the critical products and processes we previously sacrificed on the altar of efficiency to determine which are truly critical for national security in the largest possible sense.  Then, we must apply the proper resources to secure these materials and supply chains for the future.  This includes the crucial elemental materials and niche industries which were previously not linked to national security.  

Virginia, and specifically Hampton Roads, is blessed with a combination of four factors that have buoyed it during previous economic downturns and that will again serve it well in rebounding from the current crisis:
-Large and stable Government and Military facilities that will continue to employ thousands in the area with reliable incomes, and in turn provide jobs for many local community members who provide them support.
-Diverse defense contractors that will continue to receive contracts to support military construction, platforms, support, and maintenance requirements.
​-A significant number of military and government retirees whose pensions will continue to flow post COVID-19; a significant factor in spurring a rebound in retail spending.
-The Port of Virginia and its geographic location as the entry/exit point for much of the nation's traded goods.

This should not, however, allow local leaders to become complacent that a strong economic rebound is a given.  There are several factors that will work against the area as well:
-Many areas such as the Historic Triangle (Jamestown, Williamsburg, Yorktown) and Virginia Beach are largely dependent on travel and tourism dollars.  The same is true for conference centers in Hampton, Norfolk, and Virginia Beach.  I believe we can help mitigate this impact by coalescing behind the launch of the "Visit THE 757" website when conditions warrant it later this year; more on that in a future post.
-Many small businesses operating in Hampton Roads, specifically those in Service Industries like restaurants and other retail shops, may close permanently or be slow to reopen despite federal and state actions to support them.
-Organizations and businesses that by nature aggregate people as a matter of course may face total upheaval.  Some will face nationwide or global restructuring or replacement.  This could include dramatic changes to how schools, universities, theaters, sporting venues, public transportation, air travel, the cruise industry, medical facilities, and nursing care centers operate.  It is hard to imagine any of these going back to "business as usual" when the threat of future outbreaks of new origin are possible.  As a point of reference, the world has witnessed SARS, MERS, H1N1, Ebola, and now COVID-19 all in the past 18 years, Mandated government changes to regulations impacting these organizations and businesses will undoubtedly be shaped by the results of those executed in response to today's pandemic.   

In order to move forward, local government leaders, business leaders, Chambers of Commerce, trade organizations, union leaders, and education leaders at all levels, should begin meeting virtually to discuss how to re-imagine the economy in a post-COVID-19 environment. Larger businesses should be fully engaged, understanding that their own vitality is at stake in an environment in which Small Businesses are in jeopardy. 

Many will falsely hope for a return to an economy mirroring that which existed previously.  Instead, critical and thoughtful thinking on how the economy will reemerge after the current crisis has ended needs to start as soon as possible.  By acting now, leaders can leverage some of the incredible efforts that have been made in recent weeks to think through how technology (such as virtual meetings, distant learning, and direct delivery though web-based ordering) can be modified, accelerated, and reapplied to help meet the future challenge. 

Communities that do not engage forcefully now to engineer the specific change they want, will be left to wade through the change they are given.  Now is the time to come together as one Hampton Roads and build the Post-COVID-19 economy.  This is serious work that needs to begin now to help ensure the safety and health of future generations.  The clock is ticking...let's get started.